Chip shortage is expected to be wiped out the impact of the whole year

In recent years, the problem of lack of core has plagued the global auto industry. More and more auto companies are affected by this, or reduce production or allocation, or even snatching core at high price to protect supply.
With a focus on China's auto market, the relevant officials of China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) have stated publicly more than once that the tight supply of chips and other components will continue to affect the production pace of enterprises, and the impact in the second quarter is greater than the first quarter.

At the time of June, has entered the Chinese Association of Automobile Manufacturers said that the end of the second quarter, about the lack of core problems in the third quarter impact range can be alleviated?
What is the impact on China's auto market for the whole year?
RGL assist chief engineer, deputy secretary-general Ye Shengji in 2021 China automotive BBS of the shortage of "core" and China's countermeasures and points in the BBS said, "in the second quarter car chip shortage will reach peak, and optimistic forecasts auto chip foreclosures will be eased in the second half, the year is expected to recover, to mid - 2022 auto chip supply is expected to be back to normal."

Specifically, he said, upstream capacity has not yet been released, and the Renesas fire impact has been transmitted to the end of production in the second quarter.
Therefore, in the view of CAAM, the next quarter will be the peak of the car chip shortage problem.

But he further pointed out that in the current automotive semiconductor supply tight background, the good and bad spot distributors are more likely to be a stable X factor in the chip market.
"X", on the other hand, means unknown and uncertain.

Based on this, although TSMC account for sixty percent of the global automotive semiconductor wafer production capacity, and in January of this year will increase tendency capacity to the car, renesas factory production line at present also has returned, and will be shipped in the middle of July before the fire, but still can only be "auto chip foreclosures will begin in the second half of the relief" as optimistic forecasts.

But it is worth noting, as Mr Yip has repeatedly said, that the car shortage is expected to smooth out the impact throughout the year.

He pointed out that chip makers had begun to adjust their automotive production capacity in January, and that most of the midstream and downstream board companies and electrical appliance companies for automotive chips are international companies with global division of labor, and are unlikely to be affected by political factors to break cores.
In view of the chip price problem, he believes that IDM enterprise unified price adjustment as the theme, distribution links will be improved.

With the current semiconductor industry capacity to provide greater support to the automotive industry, when the automotive industry is not short of chips, other industries after half a year of cyclical adjustment, it is expected that the entire semiconductor industry supply balance by the end of 2022.

He also offered his own suggestions for the future.

For chip companies

1) Vigorously promote innovation and research between chip enterprises and automobile enterprises.
In key fields such as intelligent vehicle perception, communication and power processing of new energy vehicles, we have set up joint laboratories with vehicle enterprises to gather industrial chain resources, integrate development, co-connect innovation, improve manufacturing capacity and parts level in different fields, and achieve core breakthrough and high-end upgrade of semiconductor products of domestic vehicle standard.

2) Classification, phased application and promotion.
It is suggested to give priority to the product categories that are likely to be localized in the near future, and reserve some product categories that are likely to be replaced in the future, and put forward gradually in the follow-up work.

3) Strengthen the agent control of semiconductor enterprises.
Based on the special agent and distributor marketing system, semiconductor agents and distributors are prone to hoarding goods.
In the context of special supply shortage, the semiconductor industry should strengthen industry self-discipline and do a good job in the control of marketing system.

For vehicle enterprises

1) Actively create a good industrial chain ecology.
OEMs and electronic system suppliers should shoulder the responsibility of cultivating the upstream. Automobile, tier1, chip and component design companies, foundry factories, equipment manufacturers and raw material factories should cultivate and form a good ecological environment of the industrial chain, and create an atmosphere of willingness, courage and initiative to use domestic chips and components.

2) Improve and strengthen chip product supply chain management.
Vehicle manufacturers and Tier1 will place orders for semiconductor manufacturers only 3 months in advance, and the semiconductor delivery cycle is long. The fastest delivery period of automotive semiconductor production cycle is 4 months, which is 6 months under normal circumstances.
This is a potential miscalculation of demand, but also a huge contradiction point.

3) Further strengthen market research and evaluation work.
Vehicle enterprises should improve the ability to predict the future chip demand, place orders in advance and lock the supply plan with Tier1 and chip enterprises, and coordinate with key chip enterprises according to the current shortage situation.

To government and industry organizations

1) Actively create and ensure a stable market environment.
Put an end to the development of hoarding, competitive bidding, resources and other problems.

2) Maintain sustained policy and financial support.
Under the background of policy support and high demand from car factories, chip manufacturers have entered the car regulation chip market by putting into production line.
Once the policy stops, the market demand decreases, the production line can not stabilize the production, the enterprise will face huge operating pressure.

3) Focus on the construction of domestic standards and certification system.

4) Include automotive chips in major technology development projects.
We will increase the introduction of the first set of insurance compensation policies, include automotive chips in major technological development projects, and solve the problem that OEMs dare not use them. At the same time, local governments can also introduce supporting policies as soon as possible.

Based on the above suggestions, Ye Shengji believes that the premise of strong development of China's automobile industry, we must master the key core technology in our own hands.
"To this end, China's auto industry needs to have its own unified operating system;
After the chip shortage crisis, China's auto industry needs to establish an independent and controllable auto regulatory industrial system.
China's automotive semiconductor and integrated circuit development needs to build world-class advanced enterprises."
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