The pattern of automobile market presents new changes

At present, in the context of global chip shortage and declining market demand, domestic new energy vehicles still maintain a trend of growth against the trend. Data show that China's sales of new energy vehicles in September increased by more than two times year on year, and the market penetration rate has increased to 21.1%. The trend of "new energy up, traditional cars down" is becoming more and more obvious. However, from the perspective of sales structure, the new energy vehicle market is still concentrated in the high-end and low-end fields, and there is a lack of "explosive" models in the middle market with a large user base and high sales volume.

Traditional car companies and new forces are working together to break the deadlock. At present, with the gradual maturity of the "three electricity" technology and the continuous reduction of vehicle costs, traditional car companies have intensively launched electric models at parity with fuel cars, promoting their product array to complete self-innovation and accelerate the capture of major market segments. At the same time, niO, Xiaopeng and other new forces of car manufacturing enterprises have entered the era of monthly sales exceeding 10,000, and it has become an inevitable trend of development to occupy the mainstream market and seek new increments. In the case of increasingly fierce market competition, battery life and 100km acceleration and other performance indicators become increasingly homogeneous, autonomous driving as the core of differentiated competition, is becoming a key breakthrough for new car manufacturers to break the market barriers.

In fact, although limited by factors such as policies and regulations, the long tail, self-driving uncertainties in large-scale commercial existed, but building cars new powers have common will in 2022 as a high-grade production of automatic driving node, and adopt the way of hardware + software pre-installed subsequent iteration terminal market, thus opening up a hardware equipment.

1. Lidar acceleration of vehicle enterprise "roll-in"

Entering the second half of 2021, the pace of new car launch of new car manufacturing forces is significantly accelerated, and lidar is in the "rush to install". Carrying two laser radar xiao peng P5 | inquiry (configuration) waste heat does not disappear, then issued the first car wei wei horse horse M7, equipped with three independent zoom and high precision depending on the solid state laser radar. The competition situation of "you catch up with me" reflects that the focus of competition in the new energy vehicle market is shifting, and autonomous driving has become the focus of competition for car companies.

As one of the core hardware of advanced autonomous driving landing, lidar is now a new position for major car companies to fight for. On the one hand, frequent safety accidents have aroused consumer concerns, and auto companies urgently need to improve the safety performance of autonomous driving to boost consumer confidence. The lidar fusion scheme not only improves the accuracy of the vision algorithm, but also reduces the dependence on the depth algorithm, which is more suitable for the large-scale application of mainstream automotive enterprises. On the other hand, with the crossover of Huawei, DJI and other technology giants into the lidar market, the "catfish effect" has stimulated the vitality of the industry. While improving product performance, the cost is reduced to less than ten thousand yuan, which increases the willingness of automobile enterprises to install lidar.

In fact, after audi launched the audi A8, the world's first production model equipped with lidar, in 2017, lidar went through a "quiet period" of more than three years. However, since 2021, the trend of "grabbing lidar" has become increasingly fierce, including Mercedes Benz, BMW, Honda, Great Wall and other traditional car manufacturers as well as niO, Xiaopeng, Weima and other new car manufacturers have released new products equipped with lidar. It is foreseeable that with the acceleration of new forces in car building, a new round of "arms race" will be triggered to further promote advanced autonomous driving into the critical point of mass production.

2. Autonomous driving accelerates market "sinking"

In the era of traditional fuel vehicles, the market segment of 150,000-250,000 yuan is firmly controlled by joint venture brands. Both accord, the music in the field of cars and suvs path in the field of view L | inquiry (configuration), enclave, perennial sales at the top of the list, the current monthly sales have remained at more than 15000 vehicles, a new brand, the new model is difficult to shake its solid position. Entering the era of electric vehicles, although the product structure and business model have undergone radical changes, the market segment of 150,000 to 250,000 yuan is still the "main battlefield" with the most consumption potential. According to ihs Smarkit research data, the market penetration rate of 150,000-250,000 yuan mainstream new energy products will increase from 3% to 40% in the next 10 years, and the ratio will exceed 60% in 2030.

With a long-term view of the segment, new car makers are accelerating product launches and "sinking" autonomous driving into mid - and low-end models. In addition to the recently launched Xiaopeng P5, Weima auto has already launched three products in this field, and the price of weima M7, which will be launched next year, may also be in this price range. In addition, Tesla will launch a brand new model priced at $25,000 in 2023, while Nio also plans to launch a new brand priced at 150,000-250,000 yuan to enter the mass market. All signs show that the new forces of car making are accelerating the layout of the market segment of 150,000-250,000 yuan, and has gone deep into the competitive hinterland of traditional car enterprises.

Compared with traditional car enterprises, the new force of car making has two advantages when it impacts the segment market of 150,000 to 250,000 yuan. First, the product layout in the early stage is mainly medium and high-end models, and the good market reputation has been accumulated by virtue of high-quality products and services. There is less resistance to launch low-end models "from top to bottom". 2 it is relative to the traditional car companies, building cars new forces in the field of user operation, software and services has formed its own core competitiveness, and leading technologies in the field of intelligent especially autopilot image thorough popular feeling, which can directly copy the new brands, new models, and the alternative fuel vehicles have the effect of suppression of enemy to win in the battle.

3. Traditional car enterprises' cross-border integration to prevent "roll-in"

In order to keep the basic market, traditional car companies are accelerating their own technology research and improving the assisted driving loading rate. At the same time, they are constantly investing in and acquiring start-ups to improve their technological strength. For example, gm, Ford, Volkswagen, SAIC and other auto companies acquired the ability of autonomous driving software development and mass production through investment and acquisition of Cruise, Argo, Momenta and other leading autonomous driving enterprises. FCA and PSA merged to jointly develop smart electric models.

At the same time, traditional car companies also cooperate with Internet companies to jointly create new brands or new models, taking advantage of the opportunity to integrate into the "Internet gene". For example, Baidu and Geely jointly set up Jidu Automobile, SAIC and Ali jointly set up Zhiji Automobile, baiC, Changan, Xiaowang and Huawei jointly launched new models. And as new car makers upgrade the self-driving hardware race, traditional car companies are bound to get involved. Although in the short term, cross-border cooperation can enable traditional auto companies to quickly achieve mass production of smart cars with the help of software technology of technology companies, in the long run, there is a risk that they will lose their dominant power and even become the "OEM" of technology companies.

At present, intelligent electric vehicles are in the early stage of the outbreak, and the industry's "roll-in" is still limited to some segments, which is the best time for automobile companies to focus on superior resources to break through key technologies. Referring to the development history of smart phones, it is not difficult to find that the brands rising with the benefit of the dividend of The Times and the wind of the industry, although the early stage of development is relatively smooth, but as the industry enters the stage of differentiation, they will eventually be marginalized or even eliminated. Only enterprises with core technologies have the opportunity to break out and occupy a place in the world market.